Climate Change in the Caribbean and Other Social Problems

Puerto Rico by night, taken Sept. 25, 2017.

The severe level of devastation and suffering wrought on Puerto Rico and other Caribbean islands by hurricanes Irma and Maria is not just about exposure to extreme weather or even climate change; it's about vulnerability and social injustice.

Dangerous Hurricanes are Rare but not Unheard of

Certainly this has been an unusually active hurricane season, especially coming after more than a decade of relative quiet in the Atlantic. The official hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin (i.e. the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico) runs annually from June 1 to November 1. Peak season for hurricanes is usually from mid August to late October. This is the part of the year when the ocean reaches its warmest temperatures, providing the fuel tropical cyclones need to form and grow. Maria was the 13th named tropical cyclone this year (tropical storms are named when they reach sustained wind speeds over 38mph). On average, since 1966, there have been about 7 or 8 named tropical storms by mid September. When Maria intensified into a hurricane (with sustained winds over 74mph), it became the 7th hurricane in the Atlantic this year. On average we expect about 4 by this time of the year, but very rarely of this level of intensity.

Hurricane Maria was a category 5 hurricane when it made landfall on the island of Dominica on September 19, 2017, with winds of 155mph. This was the first time in its recorded history that the tiny island had ever been hit by a storm of this magnitude. A day later, Maria made landfall on Puerto Rico as a category 4 hurricane. Winds in excess of 130mph tore off roofs and took down powerlines. Storm surges flooded coastal towns and cities. Extreme rainfall rates created destructive flash floods and landslides.  In just over 24 hours, more than two feet of rain fell on parts of the island, triggering massive flooding in the central and northern areas, many still not recovered from Hurricane Irma two weeks prior. Maria was the strongest hurricane to strike that island since 1928. Puerto Rico has been devastated by hurricanes in the recent past, albeit not of this magnitude. Hurricane Hugo in 1989 (category 3) and Hurricane Georges in 1998 (category 2) resulted in massive, widespread damage, primarily from flooding due to intense rainfall and coastal storm surge.

Puerto Rico is no stranger to severe weather. Since 1851, it has been struck by a tropical storm on average at least once every 5 years, and by hurricanes every 6 years.This is similar to the hurricane frequency faced by coastal Louisiana, southern Florida, and the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

The unusual frequency and intensity of hurricane activity this year is certainly worth close scrutiny. It won't be clear for some time if this year's intense hurricane activity is part of a long term trend, but the increased intensity is consistent with the science of climate change. Warmer air and ocean temperatures mean more fuel for these storms, which logically should result in either greater frequency or higher intensity.

Climate Change Connection

As in the rest of the world, the climate and physical environment in the Caribbean and the Atlantic are changing. Many of these changes are not only disruptive, but contribute directly to increased exposure to risks from severe weather.  Since the 1950s, the average air temperature in Puerto Rico has warmed by more than 1 degree Fahrenheit, while surrounding ocean waters have warmed by nearly 2 degrees Fahrenheit  since 1901, providing more fuel for stronger storms. Sea level in the Caribbean has risen by about 4 inches since 1960, and is continuing to rise at a rate of about 1 inch every 15 years. By the end of the century, Puerto Rico is likely to see the surrounding sea rise by at least 1 to 3 feet.  Higher sea levels mean that coastal flooding is both more frequent and more severe. The single greatest threat from hurricanes is storm surge: water pushed inland by high winds.  Higher sea levels means that the water starts from a higher position, and can reach that much farther inland, while destructive wave action can be that much more destructive.

Water is both a threat and an extremely precious commodity to island communities.  Rising seas and the storms they bring threaten to swallow them up. But fresh water is generally in short supply, making regular precipitation and stored sources of water, such as reservoirs and aquifers, that much more important. Since 1958, rainfall during heavy storms has increased by 33 percent in Puerto Rico, and the trend toward increasingly heavy rainstorms is likely to continue, contributing to flash floods and landslides during storms. Although heavy rainstorms may become more common, total rainfall is likely to decrease in the Caribbean region, especially during spring and summer. Warmer temperatures also reduce the amount of water available because they increase the rate at which water evaporates (or transpires) into the air from soils, plants, and surface waters. With less rain and drier soils, Puerto Rico may face an increased risk of drought, which in turn can affect public water supplies, agriculture, and the economy. For example, during the 2015 drought—one of the worst in Puerto Rico’s history—hundreds of thousands of people faced water restrictions, and some people’s water was turned off for one or two days at a time.  As the sea rises, inland aquifers are also threatened by increased saltwater intrusion.

Increased Risk x Social Vulnerability = Injustice

Climate change does not generally create new threats; rather, it exacerbates existing problems and reveals systemic vulnerabilities. When it comes to the hazards of climate change, it is useful to distinguish between exposure and vulnerability. Puerto Rico is certainly exposed to tropical cyclone hazards by virtue of where it is, geographically, in the Atlantic Basin. But so are a lot of communities. In fact, every community in the Caribbean and along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of  are exposed to hurricane hazards.  But when these hurricanes hit, not everyone is affected equally, even by the exact same type of event.  Some are more vulnerable than others.

Wealth and access to resources matters. A thunderstorm with heavy rain and wind is not much of a problem for people with a sturdy roof overhead, well maintained public infrastructure to drain the water from the street and keep the power on, and adequate property insurance should there be damage. If things get more serious and evacuation is necessary, access to a car or other private transportation, money for a hotel, and trust that the government will assist in a timely fashion are essential. The absence of any of these resources can mean the difference between a temporary setback and impoverishment, between life and death. Hazards, be they 'natural' or human-caused, are only hazards in relation to social or economic vulnerability.

Well before Hurricane Maria, Puerto Rico was economically vulnerable.  Puerto Rico's economy has been in a recession since 2006. In 2014, Prepa, the island's antiquated and under-maintained electric utility, declared itself officially insolvent. After Hurricane Maria took down nearly the entire island's electrical grid, it is still unclear how, let alone when, power will be restored.  In May 2017, Puerto Rico filed for the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history, threatening its ability to maintain infrastructure, provide basic public services or possibly even honor pension commitments to teachers and other public servants. The economic stresses extend down to households. The cost of living in Puerto Rico is 13% higher than many comparable urban areas of the mainland U.S., but its per capita income - $18,000 - is nearly half that of Mississippi, the poorest state in America. According to the 2016 American Community Survey, 44%  of Puerto Ricans on the island live below the poverty line. The unemployment rate in August was 10.1%, more than double the national average. As a result, those who can have left the island for the mainland. Since 2004, Puerto Rico's population has dropped by more than 10%, and by 8% since 2010. Although Puerto Rico's population is just over 3.4 million (still bigger than 20 U.S. states), a proportional loss of population for the rest of the US would be comparable to the entire population of Texas suddenly leaving the country! But not everyone can leave Puerto Rico even if they want to. Those with money, education, skills, and resources leave first. This only leaves the community in Puerto Rico poorer and more vulnerable. 

Different Treatment for Different Places

Of all the problems and systemic vulnerabilites that Hurricane Maria has highlighted about Puerto Rico, none seem as interesting or as discomforting as the relationship between Puerto Rico and the rest of the U.S.

Puerto Rico is an "unincorporated organized territory" of the U.S., as are Guam, the Northern Marianna Islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands (there are other territories in the Pacific as well).  It is neither a state nor a foreign country.  For all intents and purposes, Puerto Rico is a colony of the U.S.; a political anachronism. Since 1898, after it was ceded by Spain following the Spanish-American War, the U.S. has exerted sovereignty over Puerto Rico and enjoyed the benefit of its strategic location, its economic output, and its taxes. But the relationship is not reciprocal.  A colony exists for the benefit of the colonizer, and not the other way around. Puerto Rico does not have sovereign control of its territory or its affairs, and it has no vote in Congress. People born in Puerto Rico are recognized by law as natural born American citizens, yet they are disenfranchised. As American citizens they can travel between the mainland and the island without a passport. So long as they remain resident on the island, however, they are not entitled to vote for members of Congress or the President of the United States. This is taxation without representation.

The second-class political status of Puerto Rico manifests in all kinds of interesting ways, for the most part in ways that reinforce Puerto Rico's subjugation and political inferiority. Although the U.S. Census has been collecting population data on Puerto Rico and the other island territories since the early 20th century, their populations are not included in count of the total U.S. population. In other words, when the U.S. Census follows its constitutionally mandated job to report how many Americans there are, it does not include the U.S. citizens resident in Puerto Rico or other island territories.

Second-class Status is Costly

Why does Puerto Rico's second-class political status matter? How does this contribute to its vulnerability?  Certainly the perception of Puerto Rico by the rest of America seems to matter. A recent national poll found that only 54 percent of Americans know that people born in Puerto Rico are U.S. citizens.  More importantly, more than 8 out of 10 Americans who know that Puerto Ricans are citizens support aid, compared to only 4 out of 10 who are not aware that they are citizens.  This overall perception of 'deservingness' based on 'Americanness' seems to manifest at all levels. The slow response by the federal government, and specifically the President, has drawn the attention by the media (albeit only after the media had exhausted its coverage of the President's Twitter war against football players kneeling during the singing of the national anthem in protest of police brutality). Texas and Florida, by comparison, suffered no such inattention or slowness of response in the aftermath of their hurricane impacts. Hurricane-affected communities in those states, already more resilient by virtue of comparatively greater wealth and resources, and better infrastructure, are likely to recover more quickly because of speedier attention. This is not to imply that all things are rosey in Texas and Florida, but ...

As Phil McKenna pointed out in Inside Climate News, the inequity of the situation is likely to be revealed by Congressional decisions on how to allocate already scarce funds for disaster recovery. This is where perception, political status, and institutional structure collide (collude?) to reinforce privilege and vulnerability. Members of Congress from Texas and Florida are among the largest voting blocs in Congress, with a combined delegation of more than 60 representatives. They will be competing for priority on these moneys. Puerto Rico, by contrast, has a single, non-voting "resident commissioner" to advocate for it.

Climate Injustice

The injustice of this situation is compounded by the fact that Puerto Rico, and other less wealthy, island communities, are significantly less responsible for climate change than wealthier societies and especially the rest of the U.S.. Puerto Ricans use one-third as much energy and emit less than half as much carbon dioxide as the rest of the United States on a per capita basis yet bear the risk of increased hurricane activity in a warming Atlantic basin. These communities are on the frontlines of the consequences of climate change. The weight of moral responsibility for action - to mitigate the problem and to protect the most vulnerable among us - falls heaviest on the shoulders of those who bear the greatest responsibility for the problem and command the greatest resources.

But action does not just mean reducing greenhouse gases and contributing to charity. It means taking a hard look at the political structures and institutions and social relationships that enhance or reduce social vulnerability. Puerto Ricans, like everyone else, need a sturdy roof, the means to protect themselves financially when things inevitably go wrong, and a government that responds when its people are in need.